Two Russian chains of the discounter segment are currently entering the Uzbekistan retail market: Svetofor and Dobrocen. This means that the “supermarketization” of Uzbekistan continues. Despite the fact that the chains did not make official announcements about entering the market, both Svetofor and Dobrocen started looking for employees in a number of cities of Uzbekistan, posting vacancies on job portals. A number of foreign, international, and local companies have recently entered the food retail market of Uzbekistan, including French Carrefour, Magnum Cash & Carry from Kazakhstan, Havas, Asia.uz and Baraka Market. Almost all of existing chains announce ambitious expansion plans and many new store openings. It means that the chain retail market in Uzbekistan is experiencing a real boom. (more…)
Market News
Russia Increased Potato Imports from Iran, Moldova and Kyrgyzstan
Record high prices for potatoes in Russia and fears of a shortage of potatoes in the 2021/22 season are forcing Russian traders to look for suppliers around the world. Normally local stocks are the highest at this time and Russia exports potatoes. Imports usually begin only in March or April, when local stocks are exhausted.
Since Russia has banned the supply of potatoes to its market from the EU, Ukraine, the United States and a number of other countries, the search for alternative suppliers of potatoes will not be an easy task in the “scarce years”. Egypt, the main potato supplier to Russia, will be able to export no earlier than February. Belarus itself is facing record-high prices and is also importing potatoes, namely, from Ukraine.
Russian potato growers can now sell them on average 3 times more expensive than usual at this time. Such a high level of prices can rationalize potato imports from rather distant countries. Russian importers manage to buy potatoes at an affordable price in Kyrgyzstan and Moldova now. The volumes of these supplies can be large by the standards of the supplying countries, but they are small for the Russian Federation. According to traders, there are also more and more potatoes supplied to the Russian market from Iran. This is a case of large volumes. The possibilities of importing potatoes even from Pakistan are being researched now.
It is notable that Central Asian countries, especially Uzbekistan, are deficient in potatoes. Only Kyrgyzstan grows enough to provide large export volumes. Farmers in the mountainous regions of the country focus on potato production. With a temperate mountain climate and sufficient precipitation, as well as high potato prices in the region, potato farming is a profitable and sustainable business for small and medium-sized farms in Kyrgyzstan.
A sharp increase in the supply of Kyrgyz potatoes to Russia this year could lead to a jump in their prices in Central Asia. For instance, Uzbekistan previously imported potatoes mainly from Russia, but the price level in Russia is so high this year that imports are out of the question. At the same time, Uzbekistan itself has already imported a record volume of potatoes in the first half of the year.
As for Russia, a further sharp rise in prices on the local potato market is very likely, unless market participants made a mistake in assessing the harvest. If it turns out that potato stocks are not as low as expected, prices may stabilize as they are indeed too high now. A decrease in prices is not expected.
Persimmon is Getting More Expensive in Uzbekistan – Prices are 70% Higher Than Last Year
There is a sharp rise in wholesale prices for persimmons in Uzbekistan. Their average price already reaches $0.30/kg now, while last year it was $0.18/kg.
The rise in prices for persimmons provokes increased demand from wholesalers who are trying to store persimmons. Traditionally, they are stored for selling in the pre-New Year period, when their prices rise significantly. This year, the rise in prices is also facilitated by the fact that the season of persimmon ripening in Central Asia has shifted to a later date. Do not underestimate the impact of the poor harvest of persimmons in Spain, the global market leader for persimmons.
Note that the export volumes of persimmons from Uzbekistan are growing quite rapidly and reach almost 100 thousand tons. The main competitors of Uzbekistan in the Russian persimmon market are Azerbaijan, Iran, Israel, Georgia, Turkey, and China. Russia, on the other hand, is the world’s largest importer of persimmons. Kazakhstan that also imports large volumes of persimmons from Uzbekistan is second in terms of persimmon imports globally. Another country in our region, Ukraine, is fourth after Germany. More and more persimmons from Uzbekistan are sold every year in Ukraine. In 2020, Uzbekistan supplied Ukraine with a record volume – 1.8 thousand mt.
Russia is Rapidly Increasing its Consumption of the Exotic Macadamia Nut
In the first eight months of 2021, the import of macadamia to the Russian Federation increased six times compared to the same period in 2020 and reached 457 mt. To explain how significant this volume is, we can compare it with the volume of imports of pistachios, which are quite traditional for Russia. So, the import of pistachios to Russia during the same period reached only 586 mt. Thus, it was only slightly more than imports of macadamia nuts. But just 4 years ago, the import of macadamia to the Russian Federation was close to zero and amounted to only about 19 mt.
Why is macadamia nut popular among consumers? First of all, macadamia’s taste distinguishes it from most other nuts, because it has a pleasant sweetish taste. To many, the taste of macadamia nuts is close to the taste of ice cream due to its creamy and even vanilla tones and high-fat content. Therefore, this nut can be used as food and as a snack, and as a dessert. However, despite its sweet taste, this nut is considered one of the most useful nuts in the world due to a big amount of vitamins, beneficial trace elements, and polyunsaturated fatty acids.
Macadamia has almost caught up with Brazilian nuts in terms of supplies to Russia, but it is still much inferior to such nuts as cashews, almonds, or hazelnuts.
Iran Increased Fruit Exports to Russia by 50% in 2021
Iran exported a record volume of fruits and nuts worth $196 million to Russia in the first three quarters of 2021. Fruit exports of Iran to the Russian Federation increased by 1.5 times in value terms in the first nine months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.
Andriy Yarmak, Economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, told: “The growth in the supply of fruits and nuts from Iran to Russia is one of the reasons for the difficulties fruit suppliers from Moldova and Uzbekistan began to experience in the Russian market last year. Iran can offer a wide range of fruits and supplies them almost all year round, which distinguishes this country from its competitors.”
“Also, Iranian suppliers are active in promoting their fruits, while exporters from Moldova, for example, rarely resort to advertising their products. In particular, in the largest fruit and vegetable trading group EF Trade Platform in Telegram, Iran is often among the five most active countries, and Moldova is usually not even in the top 10.”
Apples are a key item of Iranian exports to Russia. In the first 9 months of 2021, Iran increased their exports to Russia 2.5 times to 125,000 tons. They are followed by kiwi, of which more than 37,000 mt were exported from Iran to Russia during this period, watermelons (27,400 mt), peaches and nectarines (26,600 mt), raisins (12,200 mt), dates (7,400 mе), cherries (7,300 mt), pistachio (7,100 mt), sour cherries (6,800 mt), table grapes (4,100 mt) and plums (3,400 mt). Experts note that these volumes may be underestimated since some of the fruits are exported from Iran to Russia through third countries.
Apple Demand in Eastern Europe is Low, but Prices are Higher Than in the 2018/19 Seaso
Moldova
Moldova is the largest exporter of apples from non-EU countries in the region, therefore special attention is always riveted to it. Producers note extremely low apple demand, so they are trying to find storage, hoping that demand will recover in the future. Also, traders are not willing to buy apples, since there is almost no demand from the part of virtually the only foreign market – Russia.
Nevertheless, traders that have their own fruit storage facilities are buying export-quality apples from producers directly from the orchards, as they often have to sell them at $0.20-2.25 per kg.
The average price of apples in Moldova is still significantly higher than in 2018. In the second half of September, prices for most apple varieties sold from the orchards even dropped to $0.10-0.15 in 2018.
The apple storage capacity in Moldova is much higher now than three years ago. It means that a record amount of apples is very likely to be stored. And even so, market participants are worried about a lack of storage facilities.
The second difference is apple production in Russia. In three years, it has grown so much that it covers the entire volume of apple exports from Moldova. Of course, this does not mean that there is no demand for Moldovan apples in the Russian Federation, but it indicates its significant decrease.
Ukraine (more…)
Potato and Vegetable Prices Set New Records in Russia
Most vegetables have risen in price by 1,5 to 2 times compared to last year and have set new records for September, when, as a rule, the supply of vegetables exceeds demand on the market.
When in June prices for carrots and beets in Russia reached unprecedented levels, officials hoped for a new harvest to significantly reduce the prices. However, most of the potatoes and vegetables of the so-called “borsch set” to be stored have already been harvested, but prices are record high and continue to rise.
“Last week, carrot prices jumped by 22% at once, and the price for potatoes increased by 8%. The summer drought followed by rains when the produce had to be harvested, affected both volumes and quality of the grown produce. Market participants fear that there will not be enough high-quality potatoes and vegetables that can be stored until spring. The second factor influencing the rise in prices is the continued rains that delay the harvesting of potatoes, carrots, and beets. Accordingly, the supply is not as high as it could be at this time” explains Andriy Yarmak, economist at the Investment Centre of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
By the way, Belarus is experiencing similar problems, where prices for vegetables and potatoes are also breaking records, and the country has already begun to import potatoes from Ukraine and other countries.
However, market experts emphasize that bad weather is not the main factor affecting the decline in production and the rise in prices for potato and vegetables. The vegetable growing crisis in Russia has been going on since 2019 and it was caused by a long period of low prices and low profitability of production.
Potatoes are currently sold in Russia on average twice as expensive as last year.
Carrots have risen in prices slightly less than potatoes, but their prices have increased sharply last week. According to market participants, they will continue to grow. At the moment, wholesale carrots are 69% more expensive than at the same time last year.
The situation with onion prices is better – so far they are sold only 17% more expensive than last year. Moreover, they even have a slight tendency to decline. Also, onions in Russia are now cheaper than in other countries of the region. Therefore, the downward trend in onion prices may soon be replaced by growth.
Note that in the first seven months of 2021, Russia increased its imports of potatoes by 70%, carrots by 19%, but reduced onion imports by a third. The largest volumes of potatoes and onions were supplied to Russia by Egypt. Large volumes of onions were also imported from Turkey, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and China. The main part of carrots Russia imported from Israel, China, Egypt, and Belarus.
Russia Sharply Increased Imports of Watermelon from Uzbekistan and Turkey, Setting a New Record
In 2021 Russia will set a new record for watermelon imports. With several months still left till the end of the year, the record has already been set – as of the end of July 2021, imports of watermelon in Russia reached 46 thousand mt, while in 2020, in total, 38,3 thousand mt of watermelon were imported.
Thus, according to our estimates, by the end of 2021, imports of fresh watermelon to Russia may exceed 70 thousand mt for the first time, and the import volume will grow by about 80% compared to 2020’s record imports.
In certain circumstances, the imports of watermelons to the Russian Federation may even double. in 2021, watermelon prices across Europe were unusually low. Even if Russia could not directly import watermelons from Ukraine where farmers were ready to give them from the field for free, imports from Central Asia, where prices during the peak export in June-July, were also the lowest in recent years. (more…)
More Azerbaijani Enterprises to Export Apples to Russia
The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance of Russia (Rosselkhoznadzor) has authorized more 11 Azerbaijani enterprises to export apples to Russia since September 14 under the guarantees from the Food Safety Agency (FSA) of Azerbaijan.
As reported, this became possible through the joint measures of the agency and relevant structures for removing restrictions on the export of tomatoes and apples from Azerbaijan to Russia.
Totally, as to date, Rosselkhoznadzor has authorized the import of apples from 65 Azerbaijani enterprises. The export potential of these enterprises is 144,767 mt, which is more than double the volume of apple exports to Russia in 2020 (66,924 mt).
An Overview of the Plum Market in Ukraine, Moldova, Poland, and Russia
Most of the largest plum growers in Eastern Europe are now selling their products cheaper than last year. However, it does not mean that all growers are dissatisfied with prices. Moreover, the market situation differs in each country. For instance, the plum season in Ukraine is the worst growers had in recent years, but for other countries, it is one of the best.
Given the challenging weather in the key EU plum-producing countries in the spring of 2020, as well as the record high prices in 2020, market participants hoped that prices in 2021 would not be lower than last year. However, only in Russia the average wholesale price for plums today roughly corresponds to last year’s level, while in Moldova, Poland and Ukraine, prices are lower than in 2021.
The most notable decrease of wholesale prices for plums, more than one and a half times, was in Ukraine. Last year, the price was higher, as a large part of the harvest was lost due to frosts. The areas planted with plums in Ukraine tended to expand since plums are in good demand in the European Union. Thus, in 2021 the plum harvest in Ukraine has grown sharply and prices have fallen. (more…)