In 2015 retail trade turnover will be reduced by 8.2%, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development. Even during the 90-s and the crisis of 2009, the trade was not reduced so much. The main reason is that the government has no anticrisis plan that would stimulate consumer demand. Authorities are not planning to increase the budget expenditures, and the Central Bank is not going to stimulate bank loans for citizens.
The reduce of trade turnover by 8.2% is one of the main factors of the projected GDP decrease by 3% this year, as the share of retail trade in the GDP is about 15%. According to the Russian Federal Statistics Service, in the last 25 years in Russia trade turnover decreased five times – in 1991, 1995, 1998-1999 and 2009. The biggest drop was recorded in 1995 (6.2%). In the crisis of 2009, the decline was 5.1%. All the other years there was a growth that exceeded the growth rate of GDP. In the past year, according to the preliminary data, GDP increased by 0.6% and retail trade turnover increased by 2.5%.
According to the forecast, the wages in nominal terms in the private sector will not be increased this year, and as the inflation rate is expected to be 15.8%, the real wages will decrease. Also, the government is going to reduce budget expenditures by 10% this year, in 2016-2017 – by 5%.
The officials say that consumer demand ceased to be a driver of the economic growth, and therefore, they do not try to support it.
Elvira Nabiullina, the head of the Central Bank, said in 2013 that consumer demand, driven by increases in incomes and consumer credits, was the driver of the economy in 2011-2012, but not now.
“Attempts to stimulate consumer demand led to an increase in imports, increase of consumer credits and, in fact, to fueling the inflation,” – she said. According to the head of the Central Bank, the new driver of economic growth should be investments, but investments decraesed last year and will decrease in the current year. According to Alexei Ulyukayev, Minister of Economic Development, investments in 2015 will be reduced by 13.7%.