Higher School of Economics (HSE) warns about a soon price increase on imported goods as well as on goods produced with imported raw materials. All details are reflected in a report called “About business climate condition in retail sector in first quarter of 2014…”.
“Retailers are expecting a further weakening of ruble. Imported goods which were bought at earlier exchange rates hold out only few more months”, – Georgy Ostapkovich, the author of the report and the director of HSE Centre of Market research, explained his predictions in the interview to RBC Daily.
Retailers are now seeking for a possibility to substitute imported products to domestic ones to neutralize the price increase.
By HSE estimates, Russia is strongly depending on imports: in average 33% of goods sold through both networked and non-networked retailers are imported. Moreover, the share of imported goods is pretty stable during the last few years, as Georgy Ostapkovich added. That means the prices on goods which can’t be replaced by domestic equivalents will increase by the end of the second quarter of 2014.
Ruble has started to weaken since the middle of February 2014, but expected price increase has not been recorded by Rosstat yet. A main rule for suppliers is that a supplier must inform a retailer about release price increase in a period of 30 days.
In fact, the price raising is step by step overtaking retail networks. For example, in “Dixie” a price increase on foreign fruit and vegetables is about 10-25%, on dairy products – 7-15%, sugar – about 8%. Meat products suppliers are going to raise prices by 10% or even more.
In “O’kay” a general price increase of 15-20% is detected. Retail prices on fish have grown up by 20%, on chocolate and nuts – by about 15%. The price increase on dairy products is the same as in “Dixie” – about 15%.
Furthermore, release prices on non-food range of products are also rising by 10%. Especially prices on cloths (90% of imported items), household appliances (80% of imported items), sport goods, office supplies and toys (70 % of imported items) are growing up dramatically.
According to Rosstat, the inflation in March was 1%, since the beginning of 2014 – 2.3%.