The USDA projects Ukraine’s walnut production decreasing to 95,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 based on a combination of suboptimal weather conditions and some production areas in Russian-occupied areas. Exports were slow for two consecutive marketing years (MY) in a row: MY2020/21 – because of quality issues and administrative barriers by Turkey; and MY2021/22 – due to constrained logistics stemming from Russia’s invasion.
Domestic consumption is expected to decrease for MY2021/22 and remain the same level for MY2022/23 as result of Russian invasion. Although, some of the drop in consumption might be partially compensated by the observed decrease for imported tree nuts (predominantly almonds and cashews) and expected decrease in prices for home-grown walnuts. A drop in domestic prices is expected based on large walnut stocks accumulated on the market due to reduced exports.
Post estimates walnut consumption at around 30,000 MT both for MY2022/23 and MY2021/22, both of these estimates are nine percent lower than the MY2019/20 estimate, which could be considered as pre-conflict baseline for walnut consumption in Ukraine.